Ten years after the UK stumbled into a rushed referendum that polarised the country and caused turmoil, a warning emerges from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking upheavals for which no one is prepared.
That is the message from two leading journalists from either side of the Irish border who have teamed up to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Not Ready
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have determined that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a possibly tense and monumental public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can come out of the blue and can build support very quickly," the commentator said. "It is my view that the political architecture of our archipelago remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Aims to Provoke Discussion
The team have examined the political, economic and cultural rationales for any structural alteration in a book, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to stir debate on the topic with a roadshow of lectures that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns all parties, or should haunt all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We must avoid a referendum on a binary, unclear proposal whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you land with an extremely polarised community where those defeated are resistant to defeat and the those successful don't know quite what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister should call a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say that moment is looming, and a group called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the prospect, resulting in ambiguity if and when there might be a national vote.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Partisan language for and against unification has obscured the lack of substantive discussion, said the journalist.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the idea but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to achieve it hasn't for the most part happened. A lot has taken place in academia but hardly any government figures or activists seek to involve themselves with even the basics. For instance, what type of nation should be desired? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Volume's Strategy
In the publication, none of the commentators advocates unification or the status quo. Each writes two essays that strive for impartiality in detailing the case for a united Ireland and the case against, marshalling economic and social data, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Discussions encompass identity markers, duties, health services, elderly benefits, public liabilities and the risk of unionist unrest. The goal is to enlighten and provoke dialogue.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there is still lacking a discussion," stated O’Toole. "Discussion indicates an acknowledgement of the concept that there may exist good arguments on each side."
Dual Referendums
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where voters say they prefer unity but refuse increased taxation or adopting a new flag to acknowledge unionists' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin should work out what the offer from pro-unification movements is aside from just stating: 'We want a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," said the commentator.
Likelihood of Referendum
McBride considers a referendum in his era is probable and that it might occur unexpectedly. "You could have just a mad or a ill-advised or a negligent government minister who says: 'Let's just do this and settle the matter.'"
Both nationalists and pro-UK supporters have plausible, valid points, he said. "Somebody will prevail in this matter and the other side will in the end lose but each side has has important lessons to gain from the alternative positions."
Call for More Extensive Dialogue
Westminster needed to join the debate, said the analyst. "This is about your state. It is a British question just as much as it is an Irish question."
